Forecasting 2026
If you’re looking to 2026 as a reset button for the U.S. hotel industry, prepare to be disappointed. What the data actually points to is something more nuanced and more challenging. Don’t view 2026 as a rebound year. Instead, it will likely be another year of fragmented results.
After several years of distortion driven by the pandemic, then leisure-fueled recovery, then a disparity of growth within the segments, the industry is seemingly settling back into a more traditional cycle. But the ground underneath it has shifted. Demand softened in 2025. RevPAR stalled. Margins tightened. And notably, this slowdown did not coincide with a recession. That distinction matters. This was not a collapse in travel. It was a recalibration.
One of the most important dynamics setting up 2026 is supply. New hotel supply remains disciplined, with rooms under construction at a multi-year low. Modest improvements in demand next year are meaningful precisely because supply is not flooding the market. The lift in performance we expect in 2026 is not about demand roaring back. It is about balance slowly returning.
But the nuance is in the segments, because not all hotels are created equally. The word folks use is “bifurcated,” but I hate that word. Let’s just say there’s demand disparity between the hotel classes. Luxury and upper-upscale hotels continue to outperform, supported by higher-income households that remain willing and able to spend on travel. Midscale and economy segments are facing more pressure as lower-income travelers pull back and discretionary budgets tighten. This is not a short-term anomaly. It is a structural shift that operators and investors need to plan around.
The forecast for 2026 reflects this reality. Demand improves slightly. RevPAR edges up. Occupancy remains under pressure. ADR growth stays sub-inflationary. There is no dramatic inflection point. Instead, outcomes diverge based on market, segment, and demand mix. In an environment like this, averages are misleading. A flat national headline can hide very different stories at the local level. But if we want to talk overall numbers, look for national RevPAR to be as low as flat to growth of around .75%. Any growth will come from rate, as supply will edge out demand on a broad level.
When the margin for error is thin, strategy cannot rely on hope or historical trends. It requires a clear-eyed understanding of where demand is actually coming from, who is spending, and how local dynamics differ from national trends.
2026 will reward precision. It will expose complacency. And it will separate those who are planning thoughtfully from those who are waiting for a return to a version of normal that no longer exists.
This month, we saw the industry’s narrative sharpen. Brands are leaning hard into loyalty and direct bookings as distribution shifts with new tech. Pricing is getting more complex with demand volatility, and forecasts continue to land on modest growth for 2026 rather than a dramatic rebound. At the same time, consumer spending patterns remain uneven, reinforcing that forecasting can no longer be backward-looking but must be rooted in the real economic signals shaping travel behavior.
Some recommended reading:
Hotel pricing strategies are becoming more complex heading into 2026 as demand volatility and thinner revenue teams force a rethink of traditional revenue-management playbooks, as outlined in Hotel-Online .
Industry forecasts continue to point to modest growth rather than a rebound in 2026, reinforcing the need for cautious, market-specific planning, according to recent coverage from Hotel News Resource.
Global consumer spending remains uneven as households prioritize essentials and experiences differently, a dynamic with direct implications for travel demand forecasting, based on recent insights from Deloitte.
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