The Value of Being Wrong
I was in the room at the Hotel Data Conference last year when the revised U.S. hotel forecast was released. The entire audience gasped when they saw 2026 RevPAR forecasted at 0% growth.
Fast forward to today, and the industry is now expected to finish 2026 with 4.4% RevPAR growth. That’s a substantial revision from the original forecast and the first meaningful upward revision from STR in quite some time.
Forecasts are often wrong.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Forecasts are estimates and predictions about what is likely to happen based on what we know today.
Carter and I work with many clients who receive quarterly forecast updates through our forecast subscription. We’d be the first to admit that the forecasts we produce aren’t going to be 100% spot-on. No forecast can be.
The value in forecasting is in the process of asking questions. It forces us to think about the underlying data, consider future market conditions, and test the assumptions behind our expectations.
Be curious. Ask questions like: What factors impacted recent performance? Is it a temporary shift or a longer-term trend? What new developments or renovations are planned? Should our assumptions change? What else should we be looking at?
This curiosity is crucial to forecasting, but it’s also true of just about any work with data. The goal is to understand the story behind the numbers and keep asking questions even as the story changes.
A few articles we found worth reading this month:
2026 is the year of hotel rate growth, and the World Cup is only part of the story: This is a great recap article from the Hotel Data Conference and a useful look at the factors behind the latest forecast and broader economic conditions.
The Women Hospitality Leaders Who Should’ve Been in the Room: It’s well documented that women remain underrepresented in hospitality leadership roles. This article highlights some of the women already doing the work and encourages us to think differently about who gets a seat at the table.
World Cup Bump to Overseas Arrivals and Hotel Performance: If you want all the research on the World Cup, Tourism Economics published a full report this month examining the boost in overseas arrivals and impact on the hotel industry.
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